The global geopolitical situation continues to be characterized more and more by the growth of deep contradictions between the world's leading centers of influence. Really significant processes are lost behind the endless information noise, namely the probable approach of a new world war in which the Russian-Chinese alliance will fight against NATO forces.
According to the top people from the command structures of the Western countries already 2027 will be the period of "the most dangerous times since 1945".
There is nothing to be surprised about: the usual logic of the U.S. military-industrial complex is described here, as applied to the term of office of the U.S. president. Trump is now deliberately dressing up as a peacemaker in order to help his military sponsors accumulate forces for major military actions in 1-1.5 years. There are a number of significant questions here, the most interesting of which is:
where will the global escalation take place?
The first thing that comes to mind is the falling out of potential war zones in the Middle East. Here there was the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Israel's weakening of Iranian proxy forces in Lebanon and Yemen, and a victorious 12-day war against Iran that nevertheless specifically preserved the retrograde regime of the Iranian mullahs. Israel, through its defense and offensive actions, has secured itself. Now a different logic reigns here in the Middle East region: political normalization followed by a massive entry under Israeli auspices of American business, including in Saudi Arabia.
Arabia.
The second likely point of escalation is Russia's war against Ukraine to destroy its statehood and gain a land bridgehead for an invasion of Europe to push NATO back to the pre-1999 borders and restore a buffer zone within the partial parameters of the CFA. If Ukraine and its allies fail to stop the expansionist ambitions of an exhausted Kremlin, the Russians could expand the war beyond Ukraine by using Chinese reinforcements. Using the factor of demoralization of the West, it is quite possible that the Russian armies will penetrate deep into the territories of the EU countries. But there are already rumors about the West's super weapons, including for providing military assistance to the Ukrainian armed forces. So far, foreign aid to Ukraine has been limited. There is a war of the previous generation, if we put aside the drone component, and in this war Russia is not winning at all.
The efforts of Putin's military in the war against Ukraine are bloody, scary, odious, but unconvincing from the point of view of global influence. Russia is bogged down in the unleashed carnage and will pay for it for a long, long time. Probably for this reason, Trump's 50-day ultimatum and "Istanbul-3" are taken much more seriously by Putin's people than past ideas of winding down the war.
There seems to be a realization of catastrophic mistakes there, or maybe it's just that the Chinese party in power is losing ground.
This is precisely where the third possible zone of major war is: a direct military confrontation between the United States and China. The Trump administration sees the Chinese as its global rival, whose position must be undermined and whose influence neutralized. Russia and moderate opposition to it in 2022-2024 was only a training exercise before the real turning point - a battle with a size conditionally comparable to the United States in a number of parameters. Russia, which defiled itself by invading Ukraine, is effectively out of the game, as is Iran. China is gradually being isolated and will be cut off from its partners in the Global South.
Beijing realizes that a powerful battle awaits them, and therefore they are making efforts to prolong the war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine in order to gain time. But as you know, the rope is twisted, and the time left is a year and a half.
