The Kremlin's foreign policy concept in the Global South is rapidly entering a state of deep decline. There are very serious tectonic shifts in terms of alienating countries in different parts of the world that are extremely important to Russia. The most resonant here is the destruction of the Moscow-Baku alliance, which by its nature was a situational creation that has not stood the test of time because of Russia's inherently overwhelming international policy.
The Russian-Azerbaijani rupture has been brewing for quite a long time, and finally it actually took place, becoming an indicator of the clash between the "Russian" and "Turkic" worlds. The real proxy war between the two countries has been going on for 10 days already, the trigger for which was the detention of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg by Russian security forces. Now both sides' special services and diaspora circles have been drawn into its vortex. Of course, it has not yet come to a repetition of the events of "Black September" in 1990, but Azerbaijan is now the number two country after Ukraine where Russian intervention could take place. Of course, Putin realizes that the current confrontation with Aliyev could turn into a long-term confrontation with all the countries of the Turkic space.
In other words, after the catastrophic weakening of Iran during the "12-day war" de facto lost to Israel led to a reconfiguration of the balance in the Middle East. After the fall of the Assad regime and the critical weakening of the "axis of resistance" led by Tehran, the Russian factor in the main oil region of the world disappeared. As a result, Turkish geopolitical equities have jumped, and Ankara has set out to push Russia out of the Caucasus. Erdogan wants to close the North-South corridor to Putin and make him a complete puppet. It even turns out to be very ugly. And this is the essence of the Azerbaijani aggravation. Interestingly, the former Minister of Transportation Starovoit, who shot himself today, was responsible for the failure of this logistical corridor.
Putin has found himself in a Caucasian deadlock: Azerbaijan is an enemy; Armenia cannot forgive attempts to overthrow Pashinyan; Abkhazia is very feverish; explosive Dagestan and Chechnya are next in line.
The all-round strengthening of Russia's ties with the Taliban, which until recently was on the list of terrorist organizations, looks like a mockery in the series of described failures. Now Afghan radicals are Russian "friends", because Moscow was the first in the world to recognize the government of radical Taliban Islamists as the legitimate authorities in Afghanistan! This move is very badly received not only in the US, but also in the whole of Central Asia, not to mention India. It is hard to imagine a worse solution.
It seems that Putin wants to attract mercenaries from the Taliban to participate in the war against Ukraine. There is nothing to say about the combat effectiveness of this move. It is simply an oxymoron. But the appearance of a harsh reaction from ISIS terrorists will not be long in coming in Russia's major cities.
What does it say: if Belousov's and Shoigu's people, out of hopelessness, are already agreeing to send a limited military contingent from Laos to the Kursk region, and this to hundreds of deceived mercenaries from Africa and the North Koreans, then soon the Taliban will be roaming the country on an equal footing with the Kadyrovites.
The internal space of the Russian Federation is turning into an accumulation of armed bastards who also acquire Russian passports. We are dealing with the emergence of armies poorly controlled by the Defense Ministry of the Russian Federation, which can fall under external influence.
The Putin clique is not only losing the Global South politically, but is becoming dependent on it militarily. What kind of sovereignty can we even talk about here - total dependence. Some kind of unsympathetic geopolitical doctrine....
